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Zawahiri English language message to Pakistani Army released on internet by As Sahab

The message released to ARY TV last weekend featuring the voice of Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri speaking in English was released on the internet this morning by As Sahab.

The message, which features an audio recording of Zawahiri speaking in English played while a still image of Zawahiri is shown on screen, is 58 minutes, 10 seconds in length. A full transcript will be provided later today.

Al Qaeda Leader Mustafa abu al Yazid reported killed in Pakistan

Reports out of Pakistan indicate that Al Qaeda's Mustafa abu al Yazid has been killed in an airstrike by Pakistani planes in the tribal areas near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

Over the past yearand a half, Abu al Yazid has appeared in a number of Al Qaeda videos that were released by As Sahab. He is usually described in those videos as the commander of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, and is thought by many to be the third highest ranking member of the leadership team after Bin Laden and Zawahiri.

Abu al Yazid, born in 1951, came out of the ranks of Egyptian jihadists, and was imprisoned along with Dr.Ayman al Zawahiri for his role in the 1981 assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat.

Last month, Abu al Yazid became the first member of Al Qaeda to grant a television interview when he went on camera wiht Najeeb Ahmad, a reporter for Geo TV.

Abu al Yazid's last video release through As Sahab was on July 8.

A special report on Abu al Yazid will be sent to subscribers later this morning.

Another video out of Turkistan makes more threats against the Olympics in Beijing.

Like several other previous videos from this group, this video was uploaded to YouTube. If can be found at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sufKQ_t5NfA

We are currently working on a complete translation of this video.

Zawahiri: Alive or Dead
Analysis of Open Source Reporting

by Laura Mansfield

Is he alive or is he dead? That’s the question that many have been asking as rumors of Al Qaeda second-in-command’s death or serious injury have rippled through the internet and into the mainstream news media.

Although answers to this question have been elusive, much information can be derived from Al Qaeda’s previous actions. After all, the global terror group is very much a creature of habit when it comes to how it handles the deaths of members of the group.

Reports of Zawahiri’s death were hinted in vague postings shortly after the death of al Misri was announced. The initial reports indicated a number of foreigners were killed and injured, and that known casualties included two Egyptians. It is believed one of the dead is Al Qaeda chemical and explosives specialist Abu Khabab al Masri (al Masri translates as “the Egyptian”).

On Friday, CBS News reported that a letter from Baitullah Mehsud, a local Taliban leader, had been intercepted in Pakistan. The letter reportedly requested medical assistance and a physician to help Zawahiri, who supposedly had sustained severe injuries which had since become infected. The reports said the letter mentioned Zawahiri by name and said the Al Qaeda second in command was in severe pain. Since those initial reports, the signature and seal of the local Taliban leader on the letter has reportedly been authenticated.

There has been no acknowledgement to date of any injuries to Zawahiri. A written message from Al Qaeda in Afghanistan leader Mustafa Abu Yazid did announce the death of another Al Qaeda field commander, Abu Abdullah al Shami, who escaped from Bagram prison in July 2005.

At this point, those are the facts as we know them, and based upon this information, it is highly likely that Zawahiri remains alive or if he is dead the other members of the Al Qaeda leadership team are not aware of it..

Although we can’t be 100% sure since the last Al Qaeda leader of Zawahiri’s stature to be killed was Abu Hafs al Masri in 2001, and the Al Qaeda internet campaign was still very much in its infancy compared to today. The death of Zawahiri would almost certainly be celebrated much as the death of Abu Mus’ab al Zarqawi was just over two years ago.

But based on past behavior, we can conclude that the death of Al Qaeda leader of Zawahiri’s stature would be eulogized by at the very least the likes of Abu Yahya al Libi and Mustafa abu al Yazid, and probably Osama bin Laden himself unless op sec concerns prevent it.

At this point, in the absence of such messages, it is highly likely Zawahiri remains alive.

The second point which should be examined is Zawahiri’s condition: is he seriously wounded?

If the seal and signature of the local Taliban leader have been authenticated, then there are two possibilities: the message is legitimate, and Zawahiri needs medical assistance; or the message is some sort of coded message with a completely different meaning.

The reference to Zawahiri by name tends to lend credence to the first alternative.

The last message released by Zawahiri on the internet was in early June; a video tape aired on Pakistani TV on the anniversary of the Lal Masjid incident but it has never been officially released by As Sahab on the web to date. It is unknown whether or not another message from him is in the pipeline, recorded before the missile strike that the letter refers to.

In order to dispel these rumors of his demise or disability, Zawahiri will need to release a video taped message showing him in good health, and referencing events after the date of the letter.

Until such a message appears, Zawahiri’s status remains murky. He is likely alive but that is the only conclusion that can be reasonably drawn in the absence of more information.

Girls’ Education held hostage:  Over a third of girls schools destroyed or closed in Swat area of Pakistan

It has only been nine months since  the Swat region of Pakistan, just 90 miles from Islamabad, fell to the Taliban.  One of the main casualties of the Taliban takeover in this area of Pakistan has been girl’s education.

Last month alone, 39 girls’ schools were damaged or destroyed by fire or bombs, courtesy of the Taliban, and the attacks continue unabated.  This week, yet another girl’s school was damaged, this time by a bomb, which destroyed 10 classrooms and two offices, and damaged nearby homes.

According to an article in Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper, the local Taliban spokesman blames the attacks on a “third party”.  The newspaper reported that Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan claims that the Taliban in the area did not oppose education for girls in general, but did oppose the current educational system for females in Pakistan claiming it teaches “obscenity” and promotes “indecency”.

Current estimates are that over 17,000 girls have had their education interrupted, and the best estimates are that at least 131 schools have been damaged to the point where they cannot function.  At least 62 more girls’ schools have been closed because of the violence as well as threats to female staff members.  Another ten schools are currently closed because they have been occupied by Pakistani security forces. 

There are a total of 566 girls school in Swat.  Four of then are higher secondary schools, 22 are high schools, 51 are middle schools, and 489 are primary schools.  So upwards of a quarter of the girls schools in the area are out of commission.

Traditionally education for girls falls far behind that for young men,  Male literacy rates stand at just under 53% while female literacy is just under 23 percent.

Olympics in the crosshairs: Al Qaeda ally releases video threatening Beijing Olympcs

Islamist elements affiliated with Al Qaeda have had this summer's Olympics games in Beijing clearly in the crosshairs for some time. 

Further evidence of this emerged this weekendin the form of a video posted on the internet from the Turkistan Islamic Party (also known as ETIM or the East Turkistan Islamic Movement) Ihreatening the 2008 Olympics Games in Beijing.  The video features the  Commander of the Turkistan Islamic Party, Sayfallah, making very specific threats against the  XXIX Olympiad.

Sayfallah states that his group is warning China one more time, threatening to attack key points related to the Olympics Games.  He explicitly states that the group plans to attack Chinese cities using previously unused methods.   

Sayfallah issued a stern warning:

"This is our last warning to China and the rest of the world.  The viewers and athletes, especially those who are Muslim, who plan to go to the Olympics should change their plans and not go to China.   The Turkistan Islamic Party plans military attacks on people, offices, arenas, and other activities that are connected to the Chinese Olympic Games."

He claimed the group had undergone special training and has already begun it's operations against China,  including bomb attacks  two busses in Shanghai in May and three busses last week in Yunnan.  He also took credit for an attack on police forces in Wenzhou with an explosives-laden tractor and the attack with explosives on a plastics factory.

Chinese authorities have recognized for some time the threat from the organization, and has actively prepared for terror attacks against the Games.

Last week, an anti-terrorism manual was released to the public. People were urged to remain calm in the event of any attack and to  notify authorities by text message.  The Xinhua news agency reported an excerpt from the manual advised people that they might "also have to hide your mobile phones if kidnapped by terrorists,"

Xinhua reported that the manual covers a wide range of possible attacks, including explosions, shootings, hijacking and even chemical or nuclear attacks. 

In today's message, Sayfallah promised to used "methods that have not previously been used. 

It is unknown if the group has chemical, radiological, biological, or nuclear capabilities but given it's affiliation with Al Qaeda, the possibility must be considered.

In March of this year, at least one plot targeting the games was busted up by Chinese security forces in a raid in the Turkestan region. 

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is the Chinese term for Chinese Turkestan, which has been battling an Al Qaeda-linked jihadist group called the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. ETIM is recognized by the US, China, Kazakhstan, and the United Nations as a terror group.

The US State Department stated in its 2005 annual report on terrorism that ETIM waslink to Al Qaeda, and that Al Qaeda provided the group with training and funding.  In 2002, the Chinese government claimed that the group's founder,  Hasan Mahsum, met with Bin Laden and received funds from the terror leaders.  The Chinese also claimed that Bin Laden exported dozens of terrorists to China to assist ETIM efforts.   (Mahsum was killed in 2003 by Pakistani forces.)

Further evidence of the jihadist link is found in the evidence recovered by police when the group planning the Beijing attack was raided.  "Extremist religious ideological materials" were located along with guns, homemade bombs, and training material.

Turkestan has been referenced by Al Qaeda leaders in numerous messages, most recently in a message from Al Qaeda second-in-command Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri in part 2 of his "Town Hall" question and answer session, released in April of this year:

Concerning the United Nations, the program demanded reforming the United Nations so that it will be based on the principles of sound international democracy, which the program calls for, without presenting the theories on the rule of the strong. This means that the program agrees that the UN resolutions are adopted by the majority of members. This is an acceptance of two serious things. The first is the acceptance of non-sharia rules, and the second is acceptance of resolutions that the UN members agreed on by a majority, such as the decision to partition Palestine in 1947 and the decision to accept Israel's membership in the United Nations, thus forcing all UN members, according to the UN Charter, to respect its sovereignty and the territorial integrity of its territory. This contradicts with what the program mentioned concerning the duty of liberating the entire Palestinian territory.

Indeed, this is not confined to Palestine but it transcends it to recognizing all the UN member states that have transgressed on the territories of Muslims; that is, recognizing Russia's sovereignty over the Muslim Caucasus, the sovereignty of the Philippines on its Muslim south, the sovereignty of India over Kashmir until the referendum takes place, which the international powers will not allow, the sovereignty of China on eastern Turkistan, and the sovereignty of Spain over Ceuta and Milella, and indeed on the entire Andalusia, and so on.


The Turkistan front was also referenced by Zawahiri in his message of March 11, 2007:

The first question is: Who gave the killers the right to appoint judges to interfere in the affairs of Muslims? By what right the Security Council interferes in the affairs of Muslims and forms courts, which acquit this and convict that, while the hands of their criminals are stained with Muslims' blood in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, Algeria, Chechnya, and East Turkestan? How does America refer the Darfur case to an international court which it does not recognize and refuses to be subject to it? What injustice is governing this world.

The second question is: If you want to try those who term criminals in Darfur, who will try the criminals in Bosnia, Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Chechnya, Kashmir, Indonesia, Philippines, and East Turkestan? Who will try Bush, Blair, Putin, and Sharon? Who will try the villains who are shedding our blood and violating our sanctities on a daily basis, which is many times more than what was committed in Darfur? Who will try Mubarak, Al Sa'ud, Bouteflika, Zine El Abidine, and Bin-al-Husayn, and Musharraf?

In November 2006, a video was released by Al Fajr highlighting activities of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. (A copy of the video is available upon request.)  A number of other videos from the group are available for viewing on YouTube.

The Taliban has ordered a newspaper editor to “repent” and  the editor has received death threats after publishing a cartoon showing a woman in a burqa ordering her students to embark in jihad and embrace martyrdom.

But this time the newspaper is not in Europe;  instead it is the Daily Times, the well-respected English language newspaper in Pakistan and its sister publication Aaj Kal  And the editor whose life is being threatened is an award-winning  Pakistani Muslim, Najam Sethi.

Sethi published a cartoon satirizing Umme Hassan, who is the principal of a radical madrassa for females.  But Umme Hassan has powerful friends it seems. She is the wife of Abdul Aziz, the prayer leader of the Lal Masjid.  Abdul Aziz has been in jail since last summer when the Pakistani security forces raided the Lal Masjod.

Umme Hassan has declared cartoon “blasphemous” and claims it reaches the same level as the Danish cartoons of the Prophet Mohamed.

Apparently the threat is being taken seriously to the point that Sethi says he’s been encouraged by authorities to stay out of Pakistan until the incident dies down.  Sethi reportedly declined to leave the country.    Sethi’s home and office are under heavy guard.  Security officials in Pakistan pointed out that individual soldiers involved in the raid on the Lal Masjid last summer had been targeted in attacks.